Recent Developments in Pakistan: Internal, Regional and International Ramifications
Professors Martin Weinbaum and Mumtaz Ahmed discuss the most recent developments in Pakistan following the assassination of former Prime Minister Bhutto.
Summary Remarks by Professor Ahmed:
Pakistan today finds itself at one of the most critical junctures in its 60 years of checkered history. An overwhelming majority of the people have lost confidence in both the legitimacy and the efficacy of the political system put together by President Musharraf after the 2002 elections. Musharraf’s own approval rating has plummeted from 85% in 1999 to 7% after the judicial crisis and his own “managed” election for another 5 year term in 2007. Pakistan’s Western allies no longer trust President Musharraf’s ability to establish the writ of the state in the northern regions of the country where Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and several other militant groups have been operating freely and inflicting heavy casualties on Pakistan’s security forces. Militancy and extremism have long crossed the Attock Bridge to engulf most of the country in suicide attacks that increased from 6 in 2006 to 60 in 2007. Political uncertainties in the aftermath of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto have further aggravated the fragile economy and the entire country today is in the grip of food and power shortages.
All is not lost, however. Pakistan can still turn around if the February 18 elections are held as promised, and are held in a free and fair manner, allowing the winners or an alliance of the winners to form a government with more than symbolic power. If President Musharraf is able and willing to work out a democratically acceptable relationship with the new Prime Minister, with the Chief of Staff of the Army looking over their shoulders as a referee, this traditional troika system may turn out to be the best solution available under the circumstances. But expect more trouble if elections are rigged – should one say more than what is considered “usual” rigging? – or the winning political party or alliance wants to undo President Musharraf’s election and brings back the judges dismissed by him